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Report - Trajectory

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON THE MOST CURRENT DATA PROVIDED TO NOAA. - DATE:
MARCH 8, 1990   TO: ED LEVINE / NOAA SSC  FROM: MODELING AND SIMULATION STUDIES       NOAA
SEATTLE, WA 98115  SUBJECT: CIBRO SAVANNAH OIL SPILL  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, PLEASE
CONTACT DR. J. GALT, MODELING AND SIMULATION STUDIES, NOAA, SEATTLE, WA 98115. PHONE (206)
526-6317 OR FTS 392-6317. Based on phone conversations with Ed Levine NOAA/SSC and the
National Weather Service we have developed the following oil trajectory forecast, based on
the following information:  The barge Cibro Savannah, carrying 4 million gallons of #2
fuel oil expoloded near Linden, New Jersey at aboutlocal time, 3/6/90.  An estimated
126,000 gallons of oil was lost. At this time, the barge is not leaking.  Overflight
information done at 1045 EST.  NWS forecast obtained at about 1700 EST.  NOS tidal current
tables. 24 HR. TRAJECTORY ESTIMATE:  There is a possiblity of oil impacting the
southwestern edge of Staten Island in the areas between Ward Point and Seguine Point.
Also, oil may move into the mouth of the Raritan River and impact areas near Sandy Point.
On the northern side of Staten Island, we would expect the oil to work it's way into
Newark Bay and possibly the  Kill Van Kull during each flood cycle.  If the winds continue
to be from a south to southeasterly direction, there is a potential for beach impacts
around Bergen Point and along the southwestern shore of Newark Bay.  Due to the type of
oil and the light amount of oil at the northern and the southern edges of the slick, we do
not anticipate any new heavy beach impacts outside of the Arthur Kill area.