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Trajectory

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON THE MOST CURRENT DATA PROVIDED TO NOAA. -  DATE:
JUNE 11, 1990 TO: CHRIS NELSON / NOAA SSC  FROM: MODELING AND SIMULATION STUDIES   NOAA
SEATTLE, WA 98115  SUBJECT: M.V. MEGABORG TRAJECTORY  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, PLEASE
CONTACT DR. J. GALT, MODELING AND SIMULATION STUDIES, NOAA, SEATTLE, WA 98115. PHONE (206)
526-6317 OR FTS 392-6317.  The following trajectory analysis is based on the calculated
surface current patterns and the most recent wind forecasts available from the National
Weather Service.  The accuracy of the forecast depends heavily on these factors as well as
the preciseness of reported spill conditions (amount and type of oil spilled; location,
time, and rate of release).  Short term or small scale variations in the winds and
currents can significantly affect the analysis and generally can only be resolved by
experienced on-scene observers.  The numbers and letters in the interior of each map are
codes that represent a percentage of the total amount spilled.  The numbers indicate oil
remaining at sea, the letters indicate oil that has contacted the coastline.  The codes
used in the representation are as follows:     POLLUTION CODE    AMOUNT   FLOATING BEACHED
0    A    0.0  TO  0.5 %     1    B    0.5  TO  1.5 %     2    C    1.5  TO  2.5 %     3
D    2.5  TO  3.5 %     4    E    3.5  TO  4.5 %     5    F    4.5  TO  5.5 %     6    G
5.5  TO  6.5 %     7    H    6.5  TO  7.5 %     8    I    7.5  TO  8.5 %     9    J
GREATER THAN 8.5 %  T STANDS FOR TRACE OR OBSERVATIONAL THRESHOLD AMOUNT. POLLUTION IS
PRESENT, BUT MAY NOT BE EASILY DETECTABLE IN NORMAL FIELD OPERATIONS (IN PARTICULAR,
OVERFLIGHTS). This trajectory is based on forecast winds from the NWS, climatological
currents, and observations of oil behavior.  Winds are forecast through the night to be
weak from the SE (up to 10 knots), tomorrow winds should remain from the SE increasing in
magnitude somewhat.  The model is based on this assumption, any significant differences in
wind should be reported so the trajectory can be corrected to properly reflect the
difference.  The model was run usingM/V Mega Borg Trajectory 11 June (1630PDT)  This
trajectory is based on forecast winds from the NWS, climatological currents, and
observations of oil behavior.  Winds are forecast through the night to be weak from the SE
(up to 10 knots), tomorrow winds  FOR DAY  3 OF SPILL       11/ 6/90 18: 0 CDT  SHELF OFF
LAKE CALCASIEU, LA.     94 30    94 00    93 30    93 00 30+0028-00  FOR DAY  4 OF SPILL
12/ 6/90 18: 0 CDT  SHELF OFF LAKE CALCASIEU, LA.     94 30    94 00    93 30    93 00
30+00